Tuesday, February 17, 2009

2009 Aggressive Trader Portfolio Update

Still chugging along with great results!!

Theme 1:  (Short Banks)...Currently Long FAZ.  2009 Return =+116.0%
Theme 2:  (Short Oil to $25 then Long)...Currently Long SCO.  2009 Return = +85.35%
Theme 3:  (Short Tech)...Currently Long REW.  2009  Return = -2.4%
Theme 4:  (Long Gold)...Holding in cash, awaiting re-entry.  2009 Return = +10.9%
Theme 5:  (Short Real Estate)...Holding in cash, awaiting re-entry.  2009 Return = +36.8%
Theme 6:  (Short China)...Holding in cash, awaiting re-entry.  2009 Return = +31.2%
Theme 7:  (Short Europe)...Currently Long EFU.  2009 Return =+37.6%
Theme 8:  (Short Retail)...Currently Long SCC.  2009 Return =+21.1%
Theme 9:  (Short Toyota)...Currently Long TMSK.X.  2009 Return = -21.1%

Total Portfolio Performance = +35.1%

Now for some changes.  We've seen tremendous gains in Themes 1 and 2.  I believe those themes will continue to hold true throughout 2009.  But the recent (2009) bear resurgence has been severe, and we may be at a short-term turning point.  Therefore, effective at tomorrow's opening prices, we will Sell FAZ and SCO.  In addition, we will use the proceeds of the SCO position in a short-term reversal trade, by buying UCO.  In no way does this move take away from my stated prediction of an oil bottom at $25/barrel.  I still believe that price is in oil's future.  However, the dramatic sell-off we have seen in oil prices over the last two weeks, is telling me that the selling action has been too severe.  I do expect a short-term rebound.  A buy into UCO will take advantage of that.  In addition, I have clearly left my Theme 4 money (Long Gold) in cash for too long, and have missed a lot of the recent bull run-up.  However, I believe that bull run is due for a short-term correction as well.  Therefore, I will use the funds in that theme for a short-term play on a possible pullback in gold.  DZZ will be our method of capitalizing on that.  It will also be bought at tomorrow's open.  To recap:

SELL FAZ
SELL SCO
BUY UCO
BUY DZZ