Tuesday, February 17, 2009
2009 Aggressive Trader Portfolio Update
Still chugging along with great results!!
Theme 1: (Short Banks)...Currently Long FAZ. 2009 Return =+116.0%
Theme 2: (Short Oil to $25 then Long)...Currently Long SCO. 2009 Return = +85.35%
Theme 3: (Short Tech)...Currently Long REW. 2009 Return = -2.4%
Theme 4: (Long Gold)...Holding in cash, awaiting re-entry. 2009 Return = +10.9%
Theme 5: (Short Real Estate)...Holding in cash, awaiting re-entry. 2009 Return = +36.8%
Theme 6: (Short China)...Holding in cash, awaiting re-entry. 2009 Return = +31.2%
Theme 7: (Short Europe)...Currently Long EFU. 2009 Return =+37.6%
Theme 8: (Short Retail)...Currently Long SCC. 2009 Return =+21.1%
Theme 9: (Short Toyota)...Currently Long TMSK.X. 2009 Return = -21.1%
Total Portfolio Performance = +35.1%
Now for some changes. We've seen tremendous gains in Themes 1 and 2. I believe those themes will continue to hold true throughout 2009. But the recent (2009) bear resurgence has been severe, and we may be at a short-term turning point. Therefore, effective at tomorrow's opening prices, we will Sell FAZ and SCO. In addition, we will use the proceeds of the SCO position in a short-term reversal trade, by buying UCO. In no way does this move take away from my stated prediction of an oil bottom at $25/barrel. I still believe that price is in oil's future. However, the dramatic sell-off we have seen in oil prices over the last two weeks, is telling me that the selling action has been too severe. I do expect a short-term rebound. A buy into UCO will take advantage of that. In addition, I have clearly left my Theme 4 money (Long Gold) in cash for too long, and have missed a lot of the recent bull run-up. However, I believe that bull run is due for a short-term correction as well. Therefore, I will use the funds in that theme for a short-term play on a possible pullback in gold. DZZ will be our method of capitalizing on that. It will also be bought at tomorrow's open. To recap:
SELL FAZ
SELL SCO
BUY UCO
BUY DZZ
2009 Aggressive Trader Portfolio Update
2009-02-17T19:19:00-06:00
Matt Callow
ATP|Update|
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