Aggressive Trader Portfolio Update

Just a quick note to let you know about one change I'll be making for the ATP tomorrow morning.  The little switch we made going counter to my Themes (Long Oil and Short Gold) have both paid off.  I told you this would be a short term trade.  As of tonight, the ATP is up 39% on the year.  Oil has corrected back up far enough for me to get out of the UCO trade.  Gold has retreated a bit, but I think there is a little more to play out in that pullback.  Therefore, at tomorrow's open, we will:

SELL UCO

BUY SCO

HOLD DZZ

Stay tuned for further updates, as well as The Monthly Stock for March.

2009 Aggressive Trader Portfolio Update

Still chugging along with great results!!

Theme 1:  (Short Banks)...Currently Long FAZ.  2009 Return =+116.0%

Theme 2:  (Short Oil to $25 then Long)...Currently Long SCO.  2009 Return = +85.35%

Theme 3:  (Short Tech)...Currently Long REW.  2009  Return = -2.4%

Theme 4:  (Long Gold)...Holding in cash, awaiting re-entry.  2009 Return = +10.9%

Theme 5:  (Short Real Estate)...Holding in cash, awaiting re-entry.  2009 Return = +36.8%

Theme 6:  (Short China)...Holding in cash, awaiting re-entry.  2009 Return = +31.2%

Theme 7:  (Short Europe)...Currently Long EFU.  2009 Return =+37.6%

Theme 8:  (Short Retail)...Currently Long SCC.  2009 Return =+21.1%

Theme 9:  (Short Toyota)...Currently Long TMSK.X.  2009 Return = -21.1%

Total Portfolio Performance = +35.1%

Now for some changes.  We've seen tremendous gains in Themes 1 and 2.  I believe those themes will continue to hold true throughout 2009.  But the recent (2009) bear resurgence has been severe, and we may be at a short-term turning point.  Therefore, effective at tomorrow's opening prices, we will Sell FAZ and SCO.  In addition, we will use the proceeds of the SCO position in a short-term reversal trade, by buying UCO.  In no way does this move take away from my stated prediction of an oil bottom at $25/barrel.  I still believe that price is in oil's future.  However, the dramatic sell-off we have seen in oil prices over the last two weeks, is telling me that the selling action has been too severe.  I do expect a short-term rebound.  A buy into UCO will take advantage of that.  In addition, I have clearly left my Theme 4 money (Long Gold) in cash for too long, and have missed a lot of the recent bull run-up.  However, I believe that bull run is due for a short-term correction as well.  Therefore, I will use the funds in that theme for a short-term play on a possible pullback in gold.  DZZ will be our method of capitalizing on that.  It will also be bought at tomorrow's open.  To recap:

SELL FAZ

SELL SCO

BUY UCO

BUY DZZ

The Monthly Stock Portfolio Update

Performance Since Inception (1 Oct 2007):

The Monthly Stock Portfolio:  -48.14%

The S&P 500 Index:               -45.51%

Here's a list of closed trades:

Ticker Buy Date  Buy Price  Sell Date  Sell Price  Return

EGO     1 Oct 07      6.12      10 Nov 08     5.20      -15.0%

DRQ     1 Oct 07     49.00       1 Jan 09     20.86     -57.4%

LNDC   31 Dec 07   13.41        1 Jan 09     6.59      -50.9%

ITRN    31 Jan 08    9.87         4 Feb 09     8.70     -11.9%

February 2009 Stock of the Month

At tomorrow's open, we'll be closing out ITRN and opening a position in China Information Security Technology, Inc. (CPBY).  CPBY is a small software company that provides security systems for the Chinese government in such areas as policework, border security, and surveillance.  Investing in China certainly involves some risk, but if the PEG ratio is even close to accurate, this one is a real bargain.  Here are the numbers:

Market Cap = 160M

PEG Ratio = 0.15

Qtrly Sales Growth est. = 77%

ROE = 32%

ROA = 15%

Insiders Own = 10%

Total Debt-to-Equity = 5.5%

2009 Aggressive Trader Portfolio Update

Just a quick note to let you know where we are with our nine themes.

Theme 1:  (Short Banks)...Currently Long FAZ.  2009 Return = +83.4%

Theme 2:  (Short Oil to $25 then Long)...Currently Long SCO.  2009 Return = +19.8%

Theme 3:  (Short Tech)...Currently Long REW.  2009  Return = -3.5%

Theme 4:  (Long Gold)...Holding in cash, awaiting re-entry.  2009 Return = +10.9%

Theme 5:  (Short Real Estate)...Holding in cash, awaiting re-entry.  2009 Return = +36.8%

Theme 6:  (Short China)...Holding in cash, awaiting re-entry.  2009 Return = +31.2%

Theme 7:  (Short Europe)...Currently Long EFU.  2009 Return = +20.0%

Theme 8:  (Short Retail)...Currently Long SCC.  2009 Return = +10.3%

Theme 9:  (Short Toyota)...Currently Long TMSK.X.  2009 Return = -17.8%

Total Portfolio Performance = +21.3%